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its waters remain controversial. Several major groundwater aquifers are also heavily used and, in the
occupied territories, strongly controlled.
90 3.The Middle East, actual water availability fluctuates dramatically both seasonally and from year to
year. For many of the major rivers of the region, flows in dry years may be as low as one-half to one-third
the volume of the average yearly flows, and there is a long history of persistent and severe droughts.
95
4.Water quality problems also affect the region. Heavy use of water for irrigation contaminates water
with agricultural chemicals and salts and reduces the quality of water for downstream users. Overpumping
from many underground aquifers is leading to the intrusion of saltwater and the contamination of
100 remaining supplies — a problem especially evident in the coastal aquifers of the Gaza Strip.
CLIMATE CHANGE
1.
All debates about regional water supplies assume that natural water availability in the future will not
105 change and that flows
will be subject only to natural variations. In fact, this assumption may no longer be
true because of possible changes in the global climate. Global climate change could affect water
availability in many ways, though the precise nature of such changes is still obscure. Climate change could
110 either increase or decrease overall
water availability in different times and in different places. Estimates of
changes in temperature and precipitation patterns in the Middle East are mixed: average temperatures may
rise between 3 and 6 if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide doubles, but precipitation
115 projections show little consistency across different climate models, reflecting the difficulty of accurately
modeling precipitation and the uncertainty about regional model results. Hydrologists expect higher
temperatures to lead to substantial increases in evaporation in the region, which would decrease overall
120 water supply and increase demand. Despite the limited ability of the current models to project future
conditions accurately, even slight decreases in longterm water availability would place severe political
strains on the region, as was seen from 1979 to 1988, when a drought reduced the average runoffin the Nile
125 by only 10 percent. Although the nature of future climate changes in the region cannot be predicted with
confidence, there are indications that long-term decreases in flow exceeding 10 percent are possible. Some
preliminary modeling of the Nile basin suggests that Nile runoff would decrease by as much as 25 percent
130 under some plausible conditions, and seasonal flows may experience even more significant changes.
Ironically, the possibility of increases in runoff during the snowmelt season raises the specter of increased
frequency of severe flooding, as was experienced in Sudan in 1988.
135
Future climate changes effectively make obsolete all old assumptions about the behavior of water
supply. Perhaps the greatest certainty about future climate change is that the future will not look like the
recent past. Changes are certainly coming, and, by the turn of the century, many of these changes may
140 already be apparent. The challenge is to identify those cases in which conflicts are likely to be exacerbated
and to reduce the probability and consequences of those conflicts.
Reducing Conflicts over Water
1.
There is no single solution to the Middle East's water problems, and, ultimately, a combination of
145 efforts and in novative ideas must be applied. Formal political agreements will have to be negotiated to
apportion and manage the shared surface — and groundwater in the region, particularly in the Jordan and
Euphrates river basins and the occupied territories. Unless all of the people who depend on the resources
150 concerned are included in these agreements, conflicts will remain. In particular, definitions of equitable
utilization of the existing water resources must be negotiated and applied. Difficult decisions must also be
155 made to prioritize water use within each country. Israel, like California and many other parts of the world,
is wrestling with the conflicts between urban and rural water demands and between the agricultural and
domestic sectors. Jordan is trying to improve its water-use efficiency so that it, like Israel, can make better
160 use of its limited supplies. And all parties are exploring ways of increasing supply within serious economic
and environmental constraints. Sharing of expertise, opening access to hydrologic data, and exploring joint
water conservation and supply projects offer the best opportunities for reducing the risk of future tensions
over-water in the Middle East.
165 NEW SUPPLIES
l.The traditional reaction to resourse pressures is to focus on how to increase supplies, and this is true in